Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists4
- Connor McDavidPoints5
Scoring summary
- P311:19Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (39), Zach Hyman (15)2–5
- P31:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (38), Cody Ceci (10)2–4
- P219:05Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (37), Zach Hyman (14)2–3
- P217:00Marc Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (15), Joel Farabee (15)2–2
- P211:10Travis Konecny Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (14), Sean Couturier (15)1–2
- P28:12Zach Hyman Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (36), Leon Draisaitl (24)0–2
- P115:55Connor McDavid Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (25), Vincent Desharnais (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:55Connor McDavid Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (25), Vincent Desharnais (4)PHI 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 71% +16EDM 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P211:10Travis Konecny Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (14), Sean Couturier (15)PHI 1 – 2 EDM · PHI 13% → 27% +14PHI 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P217:00Marc Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (15), Joel Farabee (15)PHI 2 – 2 EDM · PHI 25% → 47% +22PHI 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P219:05Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (37), Zach Hyman (14)PHI 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 53% → 76% +23EDM 53% → 76%+23 pts
- P31:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (38), Cody Ceci (10)PHI 2 – 4 EDM · EDM 77% → 92% +15EDM 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 57%
- Fair odds
- EDM -125
- PHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +9 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +52 Elo | EDM 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 54.7%4th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%26th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 10th of 3110–9 | Road vs home | 8–714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.