Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals2
- Warren FoegeleAssists3
- Warren FoegelePoints5
Ducks- Max JonesGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:49Brett Kulak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (23), Warren Foegele (12)7–2
- P38:49Zach Hyman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (35), Evan Bouchard (27)6–2
- P34:49Frank Vatrano Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (10), Radko Gudas (5)5–2
- P211:43Warren Foegele Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (8), Leon Draisaitl (22)5–1
- P24:16Warren Foegele Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (9), Connor Brown (3)4–1
- P21:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (8), Warren Foegele (11)3–1
- P117:22Evander Kane Goal (14) Wrap-around, assists: none2–1
- P19:10Max Jones Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (17), Trevor Zegras (3)1–1
- P14:15Ryan McLeod Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:15Ryan McLeod Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (10)EDM 1 – 0 ANA · EDM 42% → 57% +15EDM 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P19:10Max Jones Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (17), Trevor Zegras (3)EDM 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 42% → 58% +16ANA 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P117:22Evander Kane Goal (14) Wrap-around, assists: noneEDM 2 – 1 ANA · EDM 43% → 60% +17EDM 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P21:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (8), Warren Foegele (11)EDM 3 – 1 ANA · EDM 61% → 77% +16EDM 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P24:16Warren Foegele Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (9), Connor Brown (3)EDM 4 – 1 ANA · EDM 78% → 89% +11EDM 78% → 89%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 57%
- Fair odds
- ANA -143
- EDM +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +14 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +48 Elo | ANA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.729th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.6% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 15th of 318–9 | Road vs home | 5–1231st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.