Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Derek Ryan Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal Wrist Shot2–2
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot2–2
- SO0:00Connor McDavid Goal Wrist Shot2–2
- SO0:00Trevor Moore Goal Wrist Shot2–2
- P215:29Leon Draisaitl Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (34)2–2
- P25:35Connor McDavid Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (24), Evan Bouchard (26)1–2
- P118:49Adrian Kempe Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (20), Quinton Byfield (16)0–2
- P114:44Kevin Fiala Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (21), Drew Doughty (12)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:44Kevin Fiala Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (21), Drew Doughty (12)EDM 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 71% +16LA 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P118:49Adrian Kempe Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (20), Quinton Byfield (16)EDM 0 – 2 LA · LA 71% → 84% +13LA 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:35Connor McDavid Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (24), Evan Bouchard (26)EDM 1 – 2 LA · EDM 14% → 28% +14EDM 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P215:29Leon Draisaitl Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (34)EDM 2 – 2 LA · EDM 25% → 46% +21EDM 25% → 46%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 58%
- Fair odds
- LA -125
- EDM +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +9 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +56 Elo | LA 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +1.02nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.8% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 19th of 317–9 | Road vs home | 6–926th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.