San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints1
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Matt RoyAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:42Adrian Kempe Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (10), Drew Doughty (11)1–5
- P33:36Adrian Kempe Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (9), Carl Grundstrom (3)1–4
- P212:26Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (8), Alex Laferriere (3)1–3
- P23:10Trevor Lewis Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none1–2
- P22:57Kevin Fiala Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (12)1–1
- P111:02Fabian Zetterlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:02Fabian Zetterlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 0 LA · SJ 43% → 59% +16SJ 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P22:57Kevin Fiala Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (12)SJ 1 – 1 LA · LA 38% → 56% +18LA 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P23:10Trevor Lewis Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneSJ 1 – 2 LA · LA 56% → 73% +17LA 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P212:26Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Arthur Kaliyev (8), Alex Laferriere (3)SJ 1 – 3 LA · LA 75% → 89% +14LA 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P33:36Adrian Kempe Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (9), Carl Grundstrom (3)SJ 1 – 4 LA · LA 93% → 99% +5LA 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 67%
- Fair odds
- LA -135
- SJ +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −2 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +120 Elo | LA 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.0 | Margin | +1.02nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 91.5%6th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 31 |
| 31st of 313–14 | Road vs home | 5–929th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.