Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Darnell NurseAssists2
- Zach HymanPoints2
SharksScoring summary
- P29:07Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cody Ceci (9), Darnell Nurse (7)5–0
- P117:32Leon Draisaitl Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (9), Ryan McLeod (7)4–0
- P114:55Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (11), Connor Brown (2)3–0
- P110:15Zach Hyman Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (33), Darnell Nurse (6)2–0
- P11:00Ryan McLeod Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (13), Evan Bouchard (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Ryan McLeod Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (13), Evan Bouchard (25)EDM 1 – 0 SJ · EDM 50% → 65% +14EDM 50% → 65%+14 pts
- P110:15Zach Hyman Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (33), Darnell Nurse (6)EDM 2 – 0 SJ · EDM 66% → 79% +13EDM 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P114:55Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (11), Connor Brown (2)EDM 3 – 0 SJ · EDM 80% → 90% +10EDM 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P117:32Leon Draisaitl Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (9), Ryan McLeod (7)EDM 4 – 0 SJ · EDM 90% → 96% +5EDM 90% → 96%+5 pts
- P29:07Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cody Ceci (9), Darnell Nurse (7)EDM 5 – 0 SJ · EDM 98% → >99% +2EDM 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 55%
- Fair odds
- EDM -101
- SJ +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +25 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · SJ: Magnus Chrona (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +32 Elo | EDM 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.231st of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −2.031st of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.8% | Shot share | 41.3%31st of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 89.1%26th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 21st of 316–9 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–1 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.