Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:01Trevor Moore Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (19), Carl Grundstrom (4)2–3
- P214:42William Karlsson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (10), Alex Pietrangelo (14)1–3
- P213:07Anze Kopitar Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (20), Vladislav Gavrikov (7)1–2
- P22:27Michael Amadio Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (5), Brayden McNabb (14)0–2
- P17:38Jack Eichel Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (10), Mark Stone (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:38Jack Eichel Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (10), Mark Stone (25)LA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 54% → 69% +15VGK 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P22:27Michael Amadio Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (5), Brayden McNabb (14)LA 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 71% → 84% +14VGK 71% → 84%+14 pts
- P213:07Anze Kopitar Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (20), Vladislav Gavrikov (7)LA 1 – 2 VGK · LA 12% → 27% +15LA 12% → 27%+15 pts
- P214:42William Karlsson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (10), Alex Pietrangelo (14)LA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 74% → 88% +15VGK 74% → 88%+15 pts
- P318:01Trevor Moore Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (19), Carl Grundstrom (4)LA 2 – 3 VGK · LA <1% → 2% +2LA <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Fair odds
- VGK -118
- LA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | VGK and LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −11 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +5 Elo | VGK 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.1 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3156.6% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%8th of 31 |
| 5th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 1st of 3111–2 | Road vs home | 12–43rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.