Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Brayden McNabbAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Victor HedmanAssists3
- Brayden PointPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:47Nicholas Paul Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (27), Brayden Point (22)4–5
- P39:44Paul Cotter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (13), Ben Hutton (7)4–4
- P35:31Jonathan Marchessault Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: William Karlsson (16), Jack Eichel (24)3–4
- P218:50Brayden Point Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (8), Nikita Kucherov (34)2–4
- P216:28Brayden Point Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (7), Nikita Kucherov (33)2–3
- P215:55Nikita Kucherov Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (20), Victor Hedman (26)2–2
- P28:25Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (25), Conor Sheary (6)2–1
- P116:58Ivan Barbashev Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (24), Jack Eichel (23)2–0
- P111:40Jonathan Marchessault Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (8), Brayden McNabb (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Jonathan Marchessault Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (8), Brayden McNabb (12)VGK 1 – 0 TB · VGK 46% → 62% +16VGK 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P215:55Nikita Kucherov Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (20), Victor Hedman (26)VGK 2 – 2 TB · TB 31% → 53% +22TB 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P216:28Brayden Point Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (7), Nikita Kucherov (33)VGK 2 – 3 TB · TB 53% → 74% +21TB 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P39:44Paul Cotter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (13), Ben Hutton (7)VGK 4 – 4 TB · VGK 18% → 48% +30VGK 18% → 48%+30 pts
- P318:47Nicholas Paul Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (27), Brayden Point (22)VGK 4 – 5 TB · TB 51% → >99% +49TB 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- VGK +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +5 | VGK: Jiri Patera: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +24 Elo | TB 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.0 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 10th of 319–7 | Road vs home | 9–610th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.