St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Justin FaulkGoals1
- Kevin HayesAssists1
- Justin FaulkPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Steven StamkosAssists3
- Nick PaulPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:57Justin Faulk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (2), Kevin Hayes (8)1–6
- P37:53Nicholas Paul Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (19), Victor Hedman (24)0–6
- P212:13Haydn Fleury Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (18), Brandon Hagel (18)0–5
- P21:36Nikita Kucherov Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (7), Nicholas Paul (6)0–4
- P119:46Nikita Kucherov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (21), Nicholas Paul (5)0–3
- P117:10Tyler Motte Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (17), Conor Sheary (5)0–2
- P12:23Michael Eyssimont Goal (5) Batted, assists: Tanner Jeannot (6), Haydn Fleury (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:23Michael Eyssimont Goal (5) Batted, assists: Tanner Jeannot (6), Haydn Fleury (3)STL 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 69% +14TB 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:10Tyler Motte Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (17), Conor Sheary (5)STL 0 – 2 TB · TB 71% → 83% +13TB 71% → 83%+13 pts
- P119:46Nikita Kucherov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (21), Nicholas Paul (5)STL 0 – 3 TB · TB 84% → 93% +8TB 84% → 93%+8 pts
- P21:36Nikita Kucherov Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (7), Nicholas Paul (6)STL 0 – 4 TB · TB 93% → 97% +4TB 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P212:13Haydn Fleury Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (18), Brandon Hagel (18)STL 0 – 5 TB · TB 99% → >99% +1TB 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −1 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +40 Elo | TB 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.2% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 31 |
| 12th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.2%26th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 22nd of 315–9 | Road vs home | 8–612th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.