Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Alec MartinezGoals1
- Paul CotterAssists1
- Alec MartinezPoints1
Ducks- Brett LeasonGoals2
- Mason McTavishAssists3
- Mason McTavishPoints3
Scoring summary
- P217:45Brett Leason Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (14), Cam Fowler (15)2–5
- P212:34Mark Stone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (17), Jonathan Marchessault (10)2–4
- P27:23Alec Martinez Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (9)1–4
- P112:18Troy Terry Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (9), Trevor Zegras (2)0–4
- P111:38Frank Vatrano Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (13), Ilya Lyubushkin (4)0–3
- P18:23Jamie Drysdale Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (12), Ryan Strome (16)0–2
- P13:23Brett Leason Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (14), Adam Henrique (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:23Brett Leason Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (14), Adam Henrique (9)VGK 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 54% → 68% +14ANA 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P18:23Jamie Drysdale Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (12), Ryan Strome (16)VGK 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 69% → 81% +12ANA 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P111:38Frank Vatrano Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (13), Ilya Lyubushkin (4)VGK 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 82% → 90% +9ANA 82% → 90%+9 pts
- P212:34Mark Stone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (17), Jonathan Marchessault (10)VGK 2 – 4 ANA · VGK 5% → 13% +8VGK 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P217:45Brett Leason Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (14), Cam Fowler (15)VGK 2 – 5 ANA · ANA 90% → 97% +7ANA 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 50%
- Fair odds
- ANA -117
- VGK +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +14 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +1 Elo | VGK 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 31 |
| 13th of 319–9 | Road vs home | 4–1231st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.