Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Keegan KolesarAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:09Sam Reinhart Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (21), Matthew Tkachuk (19)2–4
- P36:10Carter Verhaeghe Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (5), Matthew Tkachuk (18)2–3
- P219:37Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (8), Keegan Kolesar (4)2–2
- P215:16Gustav Forsling Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (20)1–2
- P28:58Sam Bennett Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (12), Brandon Montour (4)1–1
- P21:21Mark Stone Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:21Mark Stone Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (9)VGK 1 – 0 FLA · VGK 46% → 64% +18VGK 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P28:58Sam Bennett Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (12), Brandon Montour (4)VGK 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 34% → 54% +20FLA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P215:16Gustav Forsling Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (20)VGK 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 53% → 74% +21FLA 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P219:37Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Hutton (8), Keegan Kolesar (4)VGK 2 – 2 FLA · VGK 24% → 47% +23VGK 24% → 47%+23 pts
- P36:10Carter Verhaeghe Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (5), Matthew Tkachuk (18)VGK 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 52% → 79% +27FLA 52% → 79%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Fair odds
- FLA -123
- VGK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −24 | +3 | VGK: Jiri Patera: team allows 0.60 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +40 Elo | FLA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.211th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 55.6%3rd of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 12th of 319–8 | Road vs home | 9–56th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.