St. Louis Blues at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists3
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints3
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals1
- Dmitry KulikovAssists1
- Eetu LuostarinenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:51Pavel Buchnevich Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (10), Robert Thomas (23)4–1
- P216:43Alexey Toropchenko Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Marco Scandella (3), Brandon Saad (7)3–1
- P213:47Eetu Luostarinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (9)2–1
- P27:46Pavel Buchnevich Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jordan Kyrou (16), Robert Thomas (22)2–0
- P24:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (21), Pavel Buchnevich (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:50Jordan Kyrou Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (21), Pavel Buchnevich (14)STL 1 – 0 FLA · STL 45% → 64% +19STL 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P27:46Pavel Buchnevich Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jordan Kyrou (16), Robert Thomas (22)STL 2 – 0 FLA · STL 65% → 81% +16STL 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P213:47Eetu Luostarinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (9)STL 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 16% → 33% +17FLA 16% → 33%+17 pts
- P216:43Alexey Toropchenko Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Marco Scandella (3), Brandon Saad (7)STL 3 – 1 FLA · STL 69% → 86% +17STL 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P316:51Pavel Buchnevich Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (10), Robert Thomas (23)STL 4 – 1 FLA · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Fair odds
- FLA -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +6 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +83 Elo | FLA 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.1% | Shot share | 55.5%3rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%10th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 24th of 315–10 | Road vs home | 9–45th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.