Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:03Blake Coleman Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (11), MacKenzie Weegar (14)3–1
- P29:28
Pat Maroon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Petan (2), Marco Rossi (12)2–1 - P119:36Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (16), Yegor Sharangovich (12)2–0
- P111:40Andrew Mangiapane Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (14), MacKenzie Weegar (13)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:40Andrew Mangiapane Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (14), MacKenzie Weegar (13)CGY 1 – 0 MIN · CGY 45% → 62% +16CGY 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P119:36Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (16), Yegor Sharangovich (12)CGY 2 – 0 MIN · CGY 63% → 78% +15CGY 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P29:28Pat Maroon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Petan (2), Marco Rossi (12)CGY 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 18% → 34% +16MIN 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P319:03Blake Coleman Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (11), MacKenzie Weegar (14)CGY 3 – 1 MIN · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- CGY +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −6 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 28th of 316–12 | Road vs home | 10–69th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.