Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals2
- Josh MorrisseyAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:46Axel Jonsson-Fjallby Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic Toninato (2), Morgan Barron (3)2–4
- P30:20Matt Boldy Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (21)2–3
- P210:05Ryan Hartman Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (15), Frederick Gaudreau (5)1–3
- P26:45Nino Niederreiter Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Josh Morrissey (24), Mason Appleton (12)0–3
- P114:38Nino Niederreiter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (10)0–2
- P13:59Alex Iafallo Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Alex Iafallo Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (13)MIN 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 70% +14WPG 55% → 70%+14 pts
- P114:38Nino Niederreiter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (10)MIN 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 71% → 83% +13WPG 71% → 83%+13 pts
- P26:45Nino Niederreiter Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Josh Morrissey (24), Mason Appleton (12)MIN 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 86% → 94% +8WPG 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P30:20Matt Boldy Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (21)MIN 2 – 3 WPG · MIN 9% → 24% +15MIN 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P32:46Axel Jonsson-Fjallby Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dominic Toninato (2), Morgan Barron (3)MIN 2 – 4 WPG · WPG 78% → 92% +15WPG 78% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Fair odds
- WPG -125
- MIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +14 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +56 Elo | WPG 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 25th of 316–10 | Road vs home | 10–711th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.