Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Dominic ToninatoAssists1
- Morgan BarronPoints1
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals2
- Alex VlasicAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:15Connor Bedard Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (6), Anthony Beauvillier (9)1–2
- P23:47Morgan Barron Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (3), Dominic Toninato (1)1–1
- P115:57Connor Bedard Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (4), Philipp Kurashev (14)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:57Connor Bedard Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (4), Philipp Kurashev (14)WPG 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 52% → 68% +16CHI 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P23:47Morgan Barron Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (3), Dominic Toninato (1)WPG 1 – 1 CHI · WPG 30% → 48% +18WPG 30% → 48%+18 pts
- OT2:15Connor Bedard Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (6), Anthony Beauvillier (9)WPG 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 51% → 96% +45CHI 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 43%
- Fair odds
- CHI -111
- WPG +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +52 Elo | WPG 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −1.130th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 44.8%30th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%25th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 4th of 318–5 | Road vs home | 6–1026th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.