Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- David SavardGoals1
- David SavardAssists1
- David SavardPoints2
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Colin BlackwellAssists1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:04David Savard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P313:11Nick Suzuki Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Cole Caufield (16), Juraj Slafkovsky (8)4–2
- P217:33Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (20), Jesse Ylönen (3)3–2
- P215:02Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (11), Jake Evans (9)2–2
- P24:20Mitchell Stephens Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (19), David Savard (4)1–2
- P23:43Jason Dickinson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (1), Louis Crevier (3)0–2
- P116:56Ryan Donato Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (17), Isaak Phillips (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:56Ryan Donato Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (17), Isaak Phillips (4)MTL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 58% → 73% +16CHI 58% → 73%+16 pts
- P24:20Mitchell Stephens Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (19), David Savard (4)MTL 1 – 2 CHI · MTL 13% → 26% +13MTL 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P215:02Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (11), Jake Evans (9)MTL 2 – 2 CHI · MTL 24% → 44% +20MTL 24% → 44%+20 pts
- P217:33Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (20), Jesse Ylönen (3)MTL 3 – 2 CHI · MTL 45% → 68% +23MTL 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P313:11Nick Suzuki Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Cole Caufield (16), Juraj Slafkovsky (8)MTL 4 – 2 CHI · MTL 84% → 98% +14MTL 84% → 98%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 58%
- Fair odds
- CHI -143
- MTL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +53 Elo | CHI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −1.030th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.3% | Shot share | 45.3%29th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 10th of 317–6 | Road vs home | 6–922nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.