Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals2
- Jarred TinordiAssists3
- Jarred TinordiPoints3
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:59Jordan Kyrou Goal (9) Backhand, assists: none5–7
- P317:53Justin Faulk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (15)5–6
- P311:06Jordan Kyrou Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (24), Pavel Buchnevich (16)5–5
- P310:43Jake Neighbours Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Justin Faulk (15), Kevin Hayes (10)5–4
- P37:53Brandon Saad Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Hayes (9), Scott Perunovich (3)5–3
- P35:16Nick Foligno Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Jarred Tinordi (4)5–2
- P215:54Jason Dickinson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Raddysh (5), Jarred Tinordi (3)4–2
- P213:29Colton Parayko Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Sammy Blais (6), Mackenzie MacEachern (1)3–2
- P20:20Nick Foligno Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (13), Taylor Raddysh (4)3–1
- P14:12Anthony Beauvillier Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jarred Tinordi (2), Taylor Raddysh (3)2–1
- P13:49Connor Bedard Goal (13) Cradle, assists: Philipp Kurashev (12), Isaak Phillips (5)1–1
- P13:04Robert Thomas Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:29Colton Parayko Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Sammy Blais (6), Mackenzie MacEachern (1)CHI 3 – 2 STL · STL 18% → 35% +18STL 18% → 35%+18 pts
- P215:54Jason Dickinson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Raddysh (5), Jarred Tinordi (3)CHI 4 – 2 STL · CHI 66% → 84% +18CHI 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P310:43Jake Neighbours Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Justin Faulk (15), Kevin Hayes (10)CHI 5 – 4 STL · STL 4% → 21% +17STL 4% → 21%+17 pts
- P311:06Jordan Kyrou Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (24), Pavel Buchnevich (16)CHI 5 – 5 STL · STL 20% → 54% +34STL 20% → 54%+34 pts
- P317:53Justin Faulk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (15)CHI 5 – 6 STL · STL 52% → 98% +46STL 52% → 98%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 65%
- Fair odds
- STL -153
- CHI +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | −7 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +109 Elo | STL 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%12th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 29th of 314–11 | Road vs home | 8–45th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.