Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Dominic ToninatoGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints1
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:32Dominic Toninato Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brenden Dillon (6), Neal Pionk (11)3–2
- P34:52Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (13), Nate Schmidt (3)2–2
- P33:56Frederick Gaudreau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (16), Nic Petan (1)1–2
- P22:08Adam Lowry Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (13), Dylan DeMelo (12)1–1
- P118:07Marcus Foligno Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (5), Frederick Gaudreau (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:07Marcus Foligno Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (5), Frederick Gaudreau (6)WPG 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 53% → 70% +17MIN 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P22:08Adam Lowry Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (13), Dylan DeMelo (12)WPG 1 – 1 MIN · WPG 29% → 47% +17WPG 29% → 47%+17 pts
- P33:56Frederick Gaudreau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (16), Nic Petan (1)WPG 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 52% → 78% +25MIN 52% → 78%+25 pts
- P34:52Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (13), Nate Schmidt (3)WPG 2 – 2 MIN · WPG 22% → 48% +26WPG 22% → 48%+26 pts
- P37:32Dominic Toninato Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brenden Dillon (6), Neal Pionk (11)WPG 3 – 2 MIN · WPG 48% → 77% +29WPG 48% → 77%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -118
- WPG +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MIN and WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −8 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +3 Elo | MIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.117th of 31 |
| 8th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 5th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 10–56th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.