Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Predators- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Philip TomasinoAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:04Yegor Sharangovich Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (17)6–3
- P32:15Michael McCarron Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (11), Tommy Novak (12)5–3
- P219:58Noah Hanifin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (15), Blake Coleman (14)5–2
- P118:43Rasmus Andersson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Connor Zary (11)4–2
- P115:50Colton Sissons Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (7), Roman Josi (23)3–2
- P17:57Nazem Kadri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P16:09Filip Forsberg Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (18), Gustav Nyquist (21)2–1
- P15:12Blake Coleman Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (12)2–0
- P14:45Connor Zary Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (13), Rasmus Andersson (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:45Connor Zary Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (13), Rasmus Andersson (15)CGY 1 – 0 NSH · CGY 44% → 59% +15CGY 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P16:09Filip Forsberg Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (18), Gustav Nyquist (21)CGY 2 – 1 NSH · NSH 26% → 40% +14NSH 26% → 40%+14 pts
- P17:57Nazem Kadri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 1 NSH · CGY 60% → 74% +14CGY 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P115:50Colton Sissons Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (7), Roman Josi (23)CGY 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 23% → 38% +15NSH 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P118:43Rasmus Andersson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Connor Zary (11)CGY 4 – 2 NSH · CGY 62% → 78% +15CGY 62% → 78%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 59%
- Fair odds
- NSH -127
- CGY +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +66 Elo | NSH 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 8th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.7%13th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 24th of 317–12 | Road vs home | 12–811th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–1 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.