Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Luke Evangelista Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (3)0–3
- P315:23Ryan O'Reilly Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (24), Gustav Nyquist (20)0–2
- P15:16Gustav Nyquist Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (22), Ryan O'Reilly (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:16Gustav Nyquist Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (22), Ryan O'Reilly (17)CHI 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 57% → 71% +14NSH 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P315:23Ryan O'Reilly Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (24), Gustav Nyquist (20)CHI 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 91% → >99% +8NSH 91% → >99%+8 pts
- P319:27Luke Evangelista Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (3)CHI 0 – 3 NSH · NSH >99% → 100% +0NSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 65%
- Fair odds
- NSH -133
- CHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −22 | 0 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +111 Elo | NSH 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.2 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.4% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%14th of 31 |
| 31st of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 30th of 314–14 | Road vs home | 11–812th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.