Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Tommy NovakAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints1
Capitals- Beck MalenstynGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Gustav Nyquist Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P214:59Alex Ovechkin Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (8), Aliaksei Protas (15)2–2
- P110:25Beck Malenstyn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (2), Trevor van Riemsdyk (6)2–1
- P16:55Roman Josi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (19), Ryan O'Reilly (16)2–0
- P12:44Luke Evangelista Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (6), Tommy Novak (11)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:44Luke Evangelista Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dante Fabbro (6), Tommy Novak (11)NSH 1 – 0 WSH · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P16:55Roman Josi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (19), Ryan O'Reilly (16)NSH 2 – 0 WSH · NSH 61% → 75% +14NSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P110:25Beck Malenstyn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (2), Trevor van Riemsdyk (6)NSH 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 24% → 39% +14WSH 24% → 39%+14 pts
- P214:59Alex Ovechkin Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (8), Aliaksei Protas (15)NSH 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 31% → 53% +22WSH 31% → 53%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | WSH and NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −2 | NSH: Yaroslav Askarov (no track record yet) · WSH: Hunter Shepard: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +30 Elo | WSH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.3% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 11th of 318–8 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.