Washington Capitals at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Nicolas Aube-KubelGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Nicolas Aube-KubelPoints1
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:42Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Sandin (8), Nick Jensen (6)1–5
- P314:26Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (4)0–5
- P310:28Julien Gauthier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13), Samuel Bolduc (2)0–4
- P310:10Julien Gauthier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (12), Bo Horvat (21)0–3
- P26:01Noah Dobson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (26), Bo Horvat (20)0–2
- P24:51Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (6), Julien Gauthier (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:51Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (6), Julien Gauthier (4)WSH 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 71% +18NYI 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P26:01Noah Dobson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (26), Bo Horvat (20)WSH 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 71% → 85% +14NYI 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P310:10Julien Gauthier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (12), Bo Horvat (21)WSH 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 97% → >99% +3NYI 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P310:28Julien Gauthier Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13), Samuel Bolduc (2)WSH 0 – 4 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P314:26Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (4)WSH 0 – 5 NYI · NYI >99% → >99% +0NYI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 50%
- Fair odds
- NYI -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −12 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +3 Elo | NYI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.423rd of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.8% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 9th of 318–7 | Road vs home | 8–1022nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.