Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals2
- Kris LetangAssists6
- Kris LetangPoints6
IslandersScoring summary
- P39:48Valtteri Puustinen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (20), Marcus Pettersson (14)7–0
- P217:13Radim Zohorna Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (5), Kris Letang (19)6–0
- P216:06Evgeni Malkin Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (18), Marcus Pettersson (13)5–0
- P212:48Evgeni Malkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (11), Kris Letang (17)4–0
- P210:27Jake Guentzel Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (6), Kris Letang (16)3–0
- P210:15Jake Guentzel Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (15), Marcus Pettersson (12)2–0
- P26:44Rickard Rakell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (22), Marcus Pettersson (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:44Rickard Rakell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (22), Marcus Pettersson (11)PIT 1 – 0 NYI · PIT 46% → 65% +19PIT 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P210:15Jake Guentzel Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (15), Marcus Pettersson (12)PIT 2 – 0 NYI · PIT 67% → 83% +16PIT 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P210:27Jake Guentzel Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (6), Kris Letang (16)PIT 3 – 0 NYI · PIT 83% → 93% +10PIT 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P212:48Evgeni Malkin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (11), Kris Letang (17)PIT 4 – 0 NYI · PIT 94% → 98% +4PIT 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P216:06Evgeni Malkin Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (18), Marcus Pettersson (13)PIT 5 – 0 NYI · PIT 99% → >99% +1PIT 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Fair odds
- NYI -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −6 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +37 Elo | NYI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.419th of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.0% | Shot share | 45.2%29th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.5%7th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 20th of 317–10 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.