Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Luke GlendeningGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists1
- Luke GlendeningPoints1
Capitals- Nick JensenAssists1
- Nick JensenPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Victor Hedman Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Brayden Point Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P22:01Anthony Mantha Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Nick Jensen (5), Aliaksei Protas (13)1–1
- P17:29Luke Glendening Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (28)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:29Luke Glendening Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (28)TB 1 – 0 WSH · TB 45% → 60% +15TB 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P22:01Anthony Mantha Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Nick Jensen (5), Aliaksei Protas (13)TB 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 36% → 54% +18WSH 36% → 54%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +46 Elo | WSH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 47.3%26th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 91.7%5th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 25th of 316–11 | Road vs home | 9–612th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.