Washington Capitals at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Rasmus SandinPoints1
Rangers- K'Andre MillerGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- K'Andre MillerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:15Alexis Lafrenière Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (20), K'Andre Miller (8)1–5
- P36:54K'Andre Miller Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (14), Blake Wheeler (9)1–4
- P212:48Braden Schneider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (3), Jimmy Vesey (4)1–3
- P212:08Artemi Panarin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (21), Mika Zibanejad (22)1–2
- P27:03K'Andre Miller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (21), Artemi Panarin (27)1–1
- P24:12Anthony Mantha Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (7), Aliaksei Protas (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:12Anthony Mantha Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (7), Aliaksei Protas (14)WSH 1 – 0 NYR · WSH 46% → 64% +19WSH 46% → 64%+19 pts
- P27:03K'Andre Miller Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (21), Artemi Panarin (27)WSH 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 35% → 54% +19NYR 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P212:08Artemi Panarin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (21), Mika Zibanejad (22)WSH 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 54% → 74% +20NYR 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P212:48Braden Schneider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lindgren (3), Jimmy Vesey (4)WSH 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 74% → 88% +14NYR 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P36:54K'Andre Miller Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (14), Blake Wheeler (9)WSH 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 95% → >99% +4NYR 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Fair odds
- NYR -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −8 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +55 Elo | NYR 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.8% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 6th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 10–44th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.