Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler JohnsonGoals2
- Jason DickinsonAssists1
- Tyler JohnsonPoints2
Stars- Roope HintzGoals3
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:52Roope Hintz Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (23), Miro Heiskanen (20)4–5
- P317:24Tyler Johnson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (15), Kevin Korchinski (6)4–4
- P38:58Jason Dickinson Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Guttman (2), Alex Vlasic (7)3–4
- P32:10Jamie Benn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (12), Evgenii Dadonov (7)2–4
- P29:23Roope Hintz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (22)2–3
- P29:03Joe Pavelski Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (8), Thomas Harley (7)2–2
- P111:49Roope Hintz Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Joe Pavelski (19), Jamie Benn (17)2–1
- P110:56Cole Guttman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (5), Connor Murphy (5)2–0
- P17:56Tyler Johnson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (10), Jason Dickinson (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:56Tyler Johnson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (10), Jason Dickinson (6)CHI 1 – 0 DAL · CHI 44% → 59% +16CHI 44% → 59%+16 pts
- P29:03Joe Pavelski Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nils Lundkvist (8), Thomas Harley (7)CHI 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 35% → 55% +20DAL 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P29:23Roope Hintz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (22)CHI 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 55% → 74% +19DAL 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P317:24Tyler Johnson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (15), Kevin Korchinski (6)CHI 4 – 4 DAL · CHI 4% → 49% +45CHI 4% → 49%+45 pts
- OT4:52Roope Hintz Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (23), Miro Heiskanen (20)CHI 4 – 5 DAL · DAL 50% → >99% +50DAL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Fair odds
- DAL -130
- CHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +89 Elo | DAL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.7% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 29th of 314–12 | Road vs home | 9–610th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.