Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Blues- Marco ScandellaGoals1
- Scott PerunovichAssists2
- Scott PerunovichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:31Jason Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (18)1–2
- P210:53Marco Scandella Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (8), Scott Perunovich (5)0–2
- P118:08Jake Neighbours Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (4)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:08Jake Neighbours Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (4)DAL 0 – 1 STL · STL 54% → 70% +17STL 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P210:53Marco Scandella Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (8), Scott Perunovich (5)DAL 0 – 2 STL · STL 73% → 87% +14STL 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P218:31Jason Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (18)DAL 1 – 2 STL · DAL 10% → 25% +15DAL 10% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −6 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.0% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 4th of 3110–6 | Road vs home | 9–45th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.