Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Philipp KurashevGoals1
- Cole GuttmanAssists1
- Philipp KurashevPoints1
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals3
- Tyler SeguinAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:58Mason Marchment Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (10), Nils Lundkvist (10)1–8
- P314:29Mason Marchment Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Seguin (15), Matt Duchene (20)1–7
- P34:46Roope Hintz Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Thomas Harley (8), Joe Pavelski (20)1–6
- P30:39Philipp Kurashev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (18), Cole Guttman (3)1–5
- P212:50Mason Marchment Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (14), Nils Lundkvist (9)0–5
- P23:43Sam Steel Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (25), Miro Heiskanen (22)0–4
- P119:11Tyler Seguin Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (12), Matt Duchene (19)0–3
- P117:16Ryan Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (24), Miro Heiskanen (21)0–2
- P111:35Craig Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (7), Jani Hakanpää (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:35Craig Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (7), Jani Hakanpää (6)CHI 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 71% +15DAL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P117:16Ryan Suter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (24), Miro Heiskanen (21)CHI 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 72% → 84% +13DAL 72% → 84%+13 pts
- P119:11Tyler Seguin Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (12), Matt Duchene (19)CHI 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 85% → 93% +8DAL 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P23:43Sam Steel Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (25), Miro Heiskanen (22)CHI 0 – 4 DAL · DAL 94% → 98% +4DAL 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P212:50Mason Marchment Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (14), Nils Lundkvist (9)CHI 0 – 5 DAL · DAL 99% → >99% +1DAL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -131
- CHI +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +94 Elo | DAL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.7% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 29th of 314–13 | Road vs home | 10–68th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.