Ottawa Senators at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Parker KellyGoals1
- Dominik KubalikAssists1
- Parker KellyPoints1
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists2
- Vince DunnPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:47Vince Dunn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (14)1–4
- P312:20Parker Kelly Goal (3) Poke, assists: Dominik Kubalik (3), Thomas Chabot (8)1–3
- P219:03Andre Burakovsky Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (5)0–3
- P215:20Tomas Tatar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (13), Vince Dunn (26)0–2
- P19:50Yanni Gourde Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:50Yanni Gourde Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (14)OTT 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 55% → 70% +15SEA 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P215:20Tomas Tatar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (13), Vince Dunn (26)OTT 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 75% → 89% +14SEA 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P219:03Andre Burakovsky Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (5)OTT 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 91% → 97% +7SEA 91% → 97%+7 pts
- P312:20Parker Kelly Goal (3) Poke, assists: Dominik Kubalik (3), Thomas Chabot (8)OTT 1 – 3 SEA · OTT <1% → 2% +2OTT <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P317:47Vince Dunn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (14)OTT 1 – 4 SEA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Fair odds
- SEA -126
- OTT +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +19 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +59 Elo | SEA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 90.8%12th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 28th of 314–8 | Road vs home | 7–1126th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.