Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:10Yanni Gourde Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P22:19Will Borgen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (6), Eeli Tolvanen (13)0–2
- P14:50Eeli Tolvanen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (25), Adam Larsson (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:50Eeli Tolvanen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (25), Adam Larsson (9)VGK 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 49% → 64% +15SEA 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P22:19Will Borgen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (6), Eeli Tolvanen (13)VGK 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 67% → 82% +15SEA 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P32:10Yanni Gourde Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 91% → 98% +7SEA 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Fair odds
- VGK -103
- SEA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.2 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +16 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +27 Elo | VGK 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.