Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals2
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:42Pius Suter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P317:29Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (16), Thomas Chabot (7)3–5
- P30:37Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (21), Tim Stützle (27)2–5
- P21:31Claude Giroux Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (11), Jake Sanderson (15)1–5
- P117:53Elias Pettersson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (34), Quinn Hughes (36)0–5
- P116:58J.T. Miller Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (7), Brock Boeser (15)0–4
- P116:34Elias Pettersson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (3)0–3
- P112:39Pius Suter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Lafferty (8), Tyler Myers (14)0–2
- P12:14Ian Cole Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (2), Ilya Mikheyev (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:14Ian Cole Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (2), Ilya Mikheyev (11)OTT 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 70% +14VAN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P112:39Pius Suter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Lafferty (8), Tyler Myers (14)OTT 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 71% → 83% +12VAN 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P116:34Elias Pettersson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (3)OTT 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 84% → 92% +8VAN 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P116:58J.T. Miller Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (7), Brock Boeser (15)OTT 0 – 4 VAN · VAN 92% → 97% +5VAN 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P117:53Elias Pettersson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (34), Quinn Hughes (36)OTT 0 – 5 VAN · VAN 97% → 99% +2VAN 97% → 99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Fair odds
- VAN -127
- OTT +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +2 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +70 Elo | VAN 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +1.21st of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 26th of 314–7 | Road vs home | 13–53rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.