Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Senators- Zack MacEwenGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists2
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:16Artem Zub Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none1–5
- P219:44Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Brannstrom (7)1–4
- P27:18Dominik Kubalik Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ridly Greig (7), Thomas Chabot (6)1–3
- P119:46Tage Thompson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (12)1–2
- P112:38Zack MacEwen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (4), Thomas Chabot (5)0–2
- P16:51Jakob Chychrun Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (20), Jake Sanderson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:51Jakob Chychrun Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (20), Jake Sanderson (14)BUF 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 59% → 73% +14OTT 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P112:38Zack MacEwen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (4), Thomas Chabot (5)BUF 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 74% → 85% +11OTT 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P119:46Tage Thompson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (12)BUF 1 – 2 OTT · BUF 14% → 26% +12BUF 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P27:18Dominik Kubalik Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ridly Greig (7), Thomas Chabot (6)BUF 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 75% → 88% +13OTT 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P219:44Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Erik Brannstrom (7)BUF 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 92% → 98% +6OTT 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 63%
- Fair odds
- OTT -150
- BUF +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +5 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +90 Elo | OTT 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 88.5%30th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 22nd of 317–11 | Road vs home | 7–1023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–0 OTT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.