Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals2
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Blackhawks- Colin BlackwellGoals2
- Jarred TinordiAssists2
- Colin BlackwellPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:19Nazem Kadri Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (14), Rasmus Andersson (16)3–4
- P314:37Colin Blackwell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Sanford (3), Nikita Zaitsev (5)2–4
- P214:49Nikita Zaitsev Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (2), Jarred Tinordi (6)2–3
- P212:09Philipp Kurashev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (7), Alex Vlasic (9)2–2
- P23:26Andrew Mangiapane Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (13), MacKenzie Weegar (15)2–1
- P113:12Nazem Kadri Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (13), Martin Pospisil (5)1–1
- P14:32Colin Blackwell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jarred Tinordi (5), Connor Murphy (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:32Colin Blackwell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jarred Tinordi (5), Connor Murphy (6)CGY 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 58% → 72% +14CHI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P113:12Nazem Kadri Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (13), Martin Pospisil (5)CGY 1 – 1 CHI · CGY 28% → 43% +15CGY 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P23:26Andrew Mangiapane Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (13), MacKenzie Weegar (15)CGY 2 – 1 CHI · CGY 44% → 62% +18CGY 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P212:09Philipp Kurashev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (7), Alex Vlasic (9)CGY 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 35% → 55% +21CHI 35% → 55%+21 pts
- P214:49Nikita Zaitsev Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (2), Jarred Tinordi (6)CGY 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 55% → 76% +20CHI 55% → 76%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 53%
- Fair odds
- CHI -138
- CGY +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −3 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +20 Elo | CHI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 44.2%30th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 26th of 318–13 | Road vs home | 7–1025th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.