Chicago Blackhawks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Colin BlackwellGoals1
- Jaycob MegnaAssists1
- Colin BlackwellPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists3
- Vincent TrocheckPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:41Jimmy Vesey Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (3), Braden Schneider (7)1–4
- P31:31Jacob Trouba Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (29), Vincent Trocheck (27)1–3
- P217:03Colin Blackwell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Boris Katchouk (3), Jaycob Megna (1)1–2
- P27:25Chris Kreider Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Vincent Trocheck (26), Mika Zibanejad (24)0–2
- P113:00Artemi Panarin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (13), Vincent Trocheck (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:00Artemi Panarin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (13), Vincent Trocheck (25)CHI 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 57% → 72% +15NYR 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P27:25Chris Kreider Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Vincent Trocheck (26), Mika Zibanejad (24)CHI 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 74% → 87% +13NYR 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P217:03Colin Blackwell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Boris Katchouk (3), Jaycob Megna (1)CHI 1 – 2 NYR · CHI 10% → 24% +14CHI 10% → 24%+14 pts
- P31:31Jacob Trouba Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (29), Vincent Trocheck (27)CHI 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 78% → 92% +15NYR 78% → 92%+15 pts
- P32:41Jimmy Vesey Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (3), Braden Schneider (7)CHI 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 93% → 98% +6NYR 93% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 66%
- Fair odds
- NYR -135
- CHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −5 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +118 Elo | NYR 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.2% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 30th of 314–15 | Road vs home | 11–55th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.