Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Brady SkjeiAssists3
- Brady SkjeiPoints3
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Chris KreiderPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:49Michael Bunting Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brendan Lemieux (1), Brady Skjei (18)6–1
- P32:56Andrei Svechnikov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (17)5–1
- P31:33Jalen Chatfield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (10), Martin Necas (17)4–1
- P26:32Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (7)3–1
- P24:30Chris Kreider Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (13), Artemi Panarin (28)2–1
- P119:29Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (28), Brent Burns (14)2–0
- P11:49Jack Drury Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (13), Brady Skjei (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:49Jack Drury Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (13), Brady Skjei (16)CAR 1 – 0 NYR · CAR 45% → 59% +15CAR 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P119:29Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (28), Brent Burns (14)CAR 2 – 0 NYR · CAR 63% → 78% +15CAR 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P24:30Chris Kreider Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (13), Artemi Panarin (28)CAR 2 – 1 NYR · NYR 20% → 36% +16NYR 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P26:32Jordan Martinook Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (7)CAR 3 – 1 NYR · CAR 65% → 81% +16CAR 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P31:33Jalen Chatfield Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (10), Martin Necas (17)CAR 4 – 1 NYR · CAR 89% → 97% +8CAR 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- CAR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +48 Elo | NYR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.5% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.3% | Save percentage | 91.3%7th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 14th of 3110–11 | Road vs home | 11–43rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.