Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Michael PezzettaAssists1
- Mike MathesonPoints1
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals3
- Sebastian AhoAssists4
- Sebastian AhoPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:41Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (25), Brent Burns (13)3–5
- P313:51Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (4), Sebastian Aho (24)3–4
- P30:25Josh Anderson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none3–3
- P21:29Jesper Fast Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (12), Jack Drury (9)2–3
- P119:56Mike Matheson Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: Sean Monahan (12), Cayden Primeau (2)2–2
- P113:51Mitchell Stephens Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Michael Pezzetta (4), Jayden Struble (2)1–2
- P112:40Jesper Fast Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (23), Brent Burns (12)0–2
- P11:35Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (11), Sebastian Aho (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:35Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (11), Sebastian Aho (22)MTL 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 51% → 65% +14CAR 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P119:56Mike Matheson Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: Sean Monahan (12), Cayden Primeau (2)MTL 2 – 2 CAR · MTL 32% → 50% +17MTL 32% → 50%+17 pts
- P21:29Jesper Fast Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (12), Jack Drury (9)MTL 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 50% → 68% +18CAR 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P30:25Josh Anderson Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneMTL 3 – 3 CAR · MTL 26% → 50% +24MTL 26% → 50%+24 pts
- P313:51Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (4), Sebastian Aho (24)MTL 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 50% → 87% +37CAR 50% → 87%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 50%
- Fair odds
- CAR -102
- MTL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −25 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.63 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +1 Elo | MTL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.5% | Shot share | 56.6%2nd of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 88.3%31st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 5th of 318–6 | Road vs home | 9–69th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.