New York Rangers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Ryan LindgrenAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Aleksander BarkovAssists3
- Aleksander BarkovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (8), Matthew Tkachuk (21)3–4
- P312:15Mika Zibanejad Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (15)3–3
- P217:07Sam Reinhart Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (27), Matthew Tkachuk (20)2–3
- P214:36Will Cuylle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (9)2–2
- P213:23Artemi Panarin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (10), Ryan Lindgren (4)1–2
- P27:12Sam Reinhart Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (26), Carter Verhaeghe (13)0–2
- P118:45Evan Rodrigues Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (25), Niko Mikkola (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:45Evan Rodrigues Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (25), Niko Mikkola (9)NYR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 53% → 70% +17FLA 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P214:36Will Cuylle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (9)NYR 2 – 2 FLA · NYR 26% → 47% +21NYR 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P217:07Sam Reinhart Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (27), Matthew Tkachuk (20)NYR 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 53% → 74% +22FLA 53% → 74%+22 pts
- P312:15Mika Zibanejad Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (15)NYR 3 – 3 FLA · NYR 15% → 48% +34NYR 15% → 48%+34 pts
- P313:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (8), Matthew Tkachuk (21)NYR 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 51% → 88% +36FLA 51% → 88%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 51%
- Fair odds
- FLA -118
- NYR +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +5 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +7 Elo | FLA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.39th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 55.8%3rd of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%9th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3112–5 | Road vs home | 10–56th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.