Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Aleksander BarkovAssists3
- Aleksander BarkovPoints3
Lightning- Michael EyssimontGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:31Michael Eyssimont Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (19), Darren Raddysh (10)3–2
- P33:11Sam Reinhart Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (24)3–1
- P30:29Nikita Kucherov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (29), Nick Perbix (8)2–1
- P21:24Sam Reinhart Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (16), Aleksander Barkov (23)2–0
- P14:16Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (7), Aleksander Barkov (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:16Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (7), Aleksander Barkov (22)FLA 1 – 0 TB · FLA 45% → 60% +15FLA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P21:24Sam Reinhart Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (16), Aleksander Barkov (23)FLA 2 – 0 TB · FLA 64% → 79% +15FLA 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P30:29Nikita Kucherov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (29), Nick Perbix (8)FLA 2 – 1 TB · TB 11% → 28% +17TB 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P33:11Sam Reinhart Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (24)FLA 3 – 1 TB · FLA 73% → 91% +17FLA 73% → 91%+17 pts
- P33:31Michael Eyssimont Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (19), Darren Raddysh (10)FLA 3 – 2 TB · TB 9% → 26% +17TB 9% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- FLA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +31 Elo | TB 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.9% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 12th of 319–9 | Road vs home | 10–69th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.