Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints3
Maple Leafs- Timothy LiljegrenGoals1
- Max DomiAssists2
- Timothy LiljegrenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:50Nicholas Robertson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (18), Timothy Liljegren (5)3–2
- P319:05Sebastian Aho Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P34:16Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (17), Mark Giordano (5)2–1
- P213:52Seth Jarvis Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (15), Sebastian Aho (27)2–0
- P12:24Michael Bunting Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (26), Andrei Svechnikov (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:24Michael Bunting Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (26), Andrei Svechnikov (14)CAR 1 – 0 TOR · CAR 50% → 64% +15CAR 50% → 64%+15 pts
- P213:52Seth Jarvis Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (15), Sebastian Aho (27)CAR 2 – 0 TOR · CAR 71% → 86% +16CAR 71% → 86%+16 pts
- P34:16Timothy Liljegren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (17), Mark Giordano (5)CAR 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 8% → 24% +16TOR 8% → 24%+16 pts
- P319:05Sebastian Aho Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 1 TOR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:50Nicholas Robertson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (18), Timothy Liljegren (5)CAR 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 0% → <1% +0TOR 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Fair odds
- TOR -102
- CAR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +12 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +6 Elo | CAR 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.6% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%25th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 17th of 319–11 | Road vs home | 9–817th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.