New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals3
- Vincent TrocheckAssists3
- Vincent TrocheckPoints4
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:26Artemi Panarin Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (21), Mika Zibanejad (23)5–1
- P311:16Artemi Panarin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (24)4–1
- P218:30Chris Kreider Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (23), Blake Wheeler (10)3–1
- P217:39Nikita Kucherov Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (21), Nicholas Paul (9)2–1
- P17:36Vincent Trocheck Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (12), Alexis Lafrenière (12)2–0
- P11:51Artemi Panarin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (22), Alexis Lafrenière (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Artemi Panarin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (22), Alexis Lafrenière (11)NYR 1 – 0 TB · NYR 41% → 56% +15NYR 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P17:36Vincent Trocheck Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (12), Alexis Lafrenière (12)NYR 2 – 0 TB · NYR 57% → 72% +14NYR 57% → 72%+14 pts
- P217:39Nikita Kucherov Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (21), Nicholas Paul (9)NYR 2 – 1 TB · TB 14% → 32% +18TB 14% → 32%+18 pts
- P218:30Chris Kreider Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (23), Blake Wheeler (10)NYR 3 – 1 TB · NYR 68% → 86% +18NYR 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P311:16Artemi Panarin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (24)NYR 4 – 1 TB · NYR 97% → >99% +3NYR 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -142
- NYR +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +7 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3112–6 | Road vs home | 10–712th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.