Chicago Blackhawks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Alex VlasicAssists1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Devils- Simon NemecGoals1
- Simon NemecAssists1
- Alexander HoltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:33Tyler Toffoli Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P311:56Michael McLeod Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Curtis Lazar (8), Alexander Holtz (10)2–3
- P35:41Simon Nemec Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tierney (2), Jonas Siegenthaler (7)2–2
- P218:24Boris Katchouk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P210:08Alexander Holtz Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (5)1–1
- P115:05Jason Dickinson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:05Jason Dickinson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (8)CHI 1 – 0 NJ · CHI 40% → 57% +17CHI 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P210:08Alexander Holtz Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (5)CHI 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 38% → 58% +20NJ 38% → 58%+20 pts
- P218:24Boris Katchouk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 2 – 1 NJ · CHI 43% → 67% +24CHI 43% → 67%+24 pts
- P35:41Simon Nemec Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tierney (2), Jonas Siegenthaler (7)CHI 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 27% → 56% +28NJ 27% → 56%+28 pts
- P311:56Michael McLeod Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Curtis Lazar (8), Alexander Holtz (10)CHI 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 54% → 86% +32NJ 54% → 86%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 70%
- Fair odds
- NJ -160
- CHI +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +3 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +146 Elo | NJ 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 61.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.2% | Shot share | 52.1%7th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 88.7%29th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 30th of 314–16 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.