New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Erik HaulaAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
Capitals- John CarlsonGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:35Michael McLeod Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Alexander Holtz (9), Curtis Lazar (7)6–3
- P37:16Dawson Mercer Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (10), Nathan Bastian (5)5–3
- P219:44Michael McLeod Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Alexander Holtz (8)4–3
- P218:58John Carlson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (7), Alex Ovechkin (16)3–3
- P211:25Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (15), Martin Fehervary (5)3–2
- P28:08Dawson Mercer Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (9), Nico Hischier (10)3–1
- P118:38Connor McMichael Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (11), Anthony Mantha (7)2–1
- P19:50Nico Hischier Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (15), Jack Hughes (30)2–0
- P13:03Nico Hischier Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (2), Nico Daws (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:08Dawson Mercer Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (9), Nico Hischier (10)NJ 3 – 1 WSH · NJ 69% → 84% +15NJ 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P211:25Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (15), Martin Fehervary (5)NJ 3 – 2 WSH · WSH 15% → 30% +15WSH 15% → 30%+15 pts
- P218:58John Carlson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (7), Alex Ovechkin (16)NJ 3 – 3 WSH · WSH 27% → 50% +23WSH 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P219:44Michael McLeod Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Alexander Holtz (8)NJ 4 – 3 WSH · NJ 50% → 74% +23NJ 50% → 74%+23 pts
- P37:16Dawson Mercer Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (10), Nathan Bastian (5)NJ 5 – 3 WSH · NJ 79% → 94% +16NJ 79% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Fair odds
- NJ -100
- WSH +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +17 | −2 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.42 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Hunter Shepard: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +20 Elo | NJ 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.325th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.4%6th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3111–6 | Road vs home | 9–815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–2 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.