Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists2
- Rasmus SandinPoints2
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:54Jake Guentzel Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (17), Rickard Rakell (8)4–3
- P29:11Sidney Crosby Goal (21) Batted, assists: Jake Guentzel (25), Evgeni Malkin (18)4–2
- P119:56Rickard Rakell Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (18), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (2)4–1
- P119:18Alex Ovechkin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (10), Anthony Mantha (6)4–0
- P113:02Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (9), Hendrix Lapierre (4)3–0
- P111:16Beck Malenstyn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (3)2–0
- P10:55Tom Wilson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (9), Ethan Bear (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:55Tom Wilson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (9), Ethan Bear (1)WSH 1 – 0 PIT · WSH 44% → 59% +15WSH 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:16Beck Malenstyn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (3)WSH 2 – 0 PIT · WSH 61% → 75% +14WSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P113:02Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (9), Hendrix Lapierre (4)WSH 3 – 0 PIT · WSH 76% → 87% +11WSH 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P29:11Sidney Crosby Goal (21) Batted, assists: Jake Guentzel (25), Evgeni Malkin (18)WSH 4 – 2 PIT · PIT 8% → 18% +10PIT 8% → 18%+10 pts
- P218:54Jake Guentzel Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (17), Rickard Rakell (8)WSH 4 – 3 PIT · PIT 13% → 30% +17PIT 13% → 30%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Fair odds
- PIT -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −1 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +57 Elo | PIT 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.6% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 11th of 318–8 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.