New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Samuel BolducGoals1
- Samuel BolducPoints1
Penguins- Lars EllerGoals2
- Drew O'ConnorAssists1
- Lars EllerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:17Lars Eller Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P313:51Samuel Bolduc Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P22:20Noel Acciari Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Drew O'Connor (7)0–2
- P12:18Lars Eller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (2), Valtteri Puustinen (6)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:18Lars Eller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (2), Valtteri Puustinen (6)NYI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 51% → 66% +14PIT 51% → 66%+14 pts
- P22:20Noel Acciari Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Drew O'Connor (7)NYI 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 69% → 83% +14PIT 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P313:51Samuel Bolduc Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 2 PIT · NYI 1% → 13% +11NYI 1% → 13%+11 pts
- P319:17Lars Eller Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 3 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -105
- NYI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 17th of 317–8 | Road vs home | 8–714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.