St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Kasperi KapanenGoals1
- Torey KrugAssists1
- Kasperi KapanenPoints1
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:29Sidney Crosby Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (24), Erik Karlsson (17)2–4
- P310:31Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (6)2–3
- P34:48Jeff Carter Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (1)1–3
- P26:50Evgeni Malkin Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (23), Rickard Rakell (7)1–2
- P21:06Robert Thomas Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (17), Torey Krug (16)1–1
- P115:32Drew O'Connor Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (17), Reilly Smith (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:32Drew O'Connor Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (17), Reilly Smith (12)STL 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 58% → 73% +15PIT 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P21:06Robert Thomas Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (17), Torey Krug (16)STL 1 – 1 PIT · STL 26% → 42% +16STL 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P26:50Evgeni Malkin Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (23), Rickard Rakell (7)STL 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 57% → 75% +18PIT 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P34:48Jeff Carter Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (1)STL 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 80% → 94% +14PIT 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P310:31Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (6)STL 2 – 3 PIT · STL 3% → 16% +13STL 3% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 59%
- Fair odds
- PIT -146
- STL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +66 Elo | PIT 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 25th of 316–10 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.