Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Devon ToewsGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Devon ToewsPoints1
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:06Devon Toews Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (18), Ryan Johansen (3)2–1
- P116:31Robert Thomas Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P115:11Ryan Johansen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (11), Josh Manson (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:11Ryan Johansen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (11), Josh Manson (7)COL 1 – 0 STL · COL 46% → 63% +17COL 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P116:31Robert Thomas Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneCOL 1 – 1 STL · STL 37% → 53% +17STL 37% → 53%+17 pts
- P317:06Devon Toews Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (18), Ryan Johansen (3)COL 2 – 1 STL · COL 49% → 95% +46COL 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -118
- COL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −9 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +3 Elo | STL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 12th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 14th of 317–8 | Road vs home | 10–45th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.