Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Parker KellyGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Parker KellyPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals3
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Zach HymanPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:10Zach Hyman Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (40), Evan Bouchard (30)1–3
- P315:02Parker Kelly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (12), Erik Brannstrom (8)1–2
- P32:46Zach Hyman Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (29)0–2
- P218:08Zach Hyman Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (28), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (26)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:08Zach Hyman Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (28), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (26)OTT 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 54% → 76% +22EDM 54% → 76%+22 pts
- P32:46Zach Hyman Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (29)OTT 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 78% → 93% +15EDM 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P315:02Parker Kelly Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (12), Erik Brannstrom (8)OTT 1 – 2 EDM · OTT <1% → 9% +9OTT <1% → 9%+9 pts
- P317:10Zach Hyman Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (40), Evan Bouchard (30)OTT 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 96% → >99% +4EDM 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- OTT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +10 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +76 Elo | EDM 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 28th of 314–9 | Road vs home | 9–712th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.