Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:53Ross Colton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johansen (6), Joel Kiviranta (4)5–3
- P316:35Nathan MacKinnon Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (33), Jonathan Drouin (14)4–3
- P37:35Andrew Cogliano Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (8), Logan O'Connor (10)3–3
- P213:13Mikko Rantanen Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (6)2–3
- P25:27Jonathan Drouin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (10), Nathan MacKinnon (46)1–3
- P115:04Timothy Liljegren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P110:47Morgan Rielly Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none0–2
- P16:23Max Domi Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:23Max Domi Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: noneCOL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 69% +15TOR 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P110:47Morgan Rielly Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneCOL 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 70% → 82% +12TOR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P213:13Mikko Rantanen Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (6)COL 2 – 3 TOR · COL 12% → 27% +15COL 12% → 27%+15 pts
- P37:35Andrew Cogliano Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (8), Logan O'Connor (10)COL 3 – 3 TOR · COL 20% → 48% +28COL 20% → 48%+28 pts
- P316:35Nathan MacKinnon Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (33), Jonathan Drouin (14)COL 4 – 3 TOR · COL 49% → 93% +44COL 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +18 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.74th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.1% | Shot share | 51.7%7th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 11th of 319–8 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.