Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- Morgan RiellyPoints2
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:12Auston Matthews Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (25), Morgan Rielly (25)2–1
- P314:17John Tavares Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (24), William Nylander (32)1–1
- P211:41Frank Vatrano Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (15), Jamie Drysdale (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:41Frank Vatrano Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (15), Jamie Drysdale (3)TOR 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 55% → 74% +19ANA 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P314:17John Tavares Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (24), William Nylander (32)TOR 1 – 1 ANA · TOR 11% → 48% +37TOR 11% → 48%+37 pts
- OT2:12Auston Matthews Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (25), Morgan Rielly (25)TOR 2 – 1 ANA · TOR 48% → 95% +47TOR 48% → 95%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 49%
- Fair odds
- ANA -134
- TOR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +18 | −18 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +9 Elo | TOR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 18th of 317–8 | Road vs home | 5–1331st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.