Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
KingsScoring summary
- P319:00William Nylander Goal (19) Backhand, assists: none3–0
- P28:14Calle Jarnkrok Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (10), Max Domi (19)2–0
- P25:13William Nylander Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (9), John Tavares (21)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:13William Nylander Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (9), John Tavares (21)TOR 1 – 0 LA · TOR 46% → 64% +19TOR 46% → 64%+19 pts
- P28:14Calle Jarnkrok Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (10), Max Domi (19)TOR 2 – 0 LA · TOR 65% → 82% +16TOR 65% → 82%+16 pts
- P319:00William Nylander Goal (19) Backhand, assists: noneTOR 3 – 0 LA · TOR >99% → 100% +0TOR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 58%
- Fair odds
- LA -126
- TOR +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +8 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +58 Elo | LA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +1.02nd of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 20th of 316–8 | Road vs home | 6–1029th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.