Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Devon ToewsAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals2
- Mason MarchmentAssists2
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (18)5–4
- P318:51Mikko Rantanen Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Logan O'Connor (8), Cale Makar (37)4–4
- P39:45Jonathan Drouin Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jack Johnson (7)3–4
- P39:07Tyler Seguin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (16)2–4
- P219:48Jonathan Drouin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (17), Nathan MacKinnon (42)2–3
- P210:10Joe Pavelski Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (23), Miro Heiskanen (23)1–3
- P21:28Tyler Seguin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (22), Mason Marchment (15)1–2
- P113:44Nathan MacKinnon Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Miles Wood (6), Jack Johnson (6)1–1
- P111:57Evgenii Dadonov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:57Evgenii Dadonov Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 70% +15DAL 54% → 70%+15 pts
- P113:44Nathan MacKinnon Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Miles Wood (6), Jack Johnson (6)COL 1 – 1 DAL · COL 30% → 46% +16COL 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P21:28Tyler Seguin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (22), Mason Marchment (15)COL 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 71% +17DAL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P318:51Mikko Rantanen Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Logan O'Connor (8), Cale Makar (37)COL 4 – 4 DAL · COL <1% → 49% +49COL <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT3:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (18)COL 5 – 4 DAL · COL 49% → >99% +50COL 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +23 Elo | DAL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.0% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 11th of 318–8 | Road vs home | 11–710th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.